Sports fans dreaded question; What if?
It’s the question that for some sports fans brings back nightmares that had been pushed to the back of the memory bank. The memories that only come up when you’re a few beers deep at your neighbour’s barbeque, trying to convince everyone that Brayden Maynard was blocked from spoiling Dom Sheed’s mark in the final minutes of the 2018 Grand Final.
It shines a light on a time of such hope and optimism that was ripped away by the bounce of a ball, an umpire’s whistle or the split-second decision by a player under pressure.
What if Michael Jordan never retired the first time to play baseball? Would Houston have won those back-to-back titles in 1994 and 1995 or would the Bulls have won eight straight? What if Richmond had drafted Lance Franklin at pick four in the 2004 draft instead of Richard Tambling? Do the mediocre years before a 2013 finals series improve for the yellow and black?
The famous what ifs in each sport almost become folklore. But some of the least explored examples may have potentially had the biggest impact, you just had to dig a little deeper to find them.
Over the Easter weekend I was treated to a lot of great sporting moments, beginning with the 2011 Preliminary Final between Hawthorn and Collingwood. The Pies snatched a three-point victory late in the game, winning through to their second grand final in a row. But the more I thought about that Collingwood team and this game though, the more “what ifs” that popped into my head.
Luke Ball kicks the match-winning snap with just under three minutes to go following a boundary throw in deep in their forward pocket. But what if Dane Swan or Luke Hodge had knocked the ball out of his hands?
The pair almost run through Ball as they contest the footy and nearly snatch it out of his grip. A quick extension of an arm from either two and the ball bobbles around in the contest and Ball’s room to snap and goal is closed.
Now no one knows what happens if the ball is locked up, maybe he still kicks the sealer later. But the reality is it was the match-winner and it almost didn’t happen.
Now imagine the Hawks had held on to win that game and in the 2010 Grand Final the ball had fallen in Stephen Milne’s lap instead of through for a point. He kicks the goal; the Saints win their second premiership and Collingwood’s form this century paints a different picture.
The Pies would be without a premiership in the 2000’s, instead dealing with the heartbreak of four grand final losses and five preliminary final defeats.
Mick Malthouse would never have led the Pies to a premiership, Scott Pendlebury would be flagless and the narrative of the Collingwood Football Club in this century would be very different. Two big moments helped them write a better story. Split second actions that some might say had the footy gods on their side when it mattered most.
Later, I was treated to the incredible 2013 NBA Finals game six matchup between Miami and San Antonio. Down three games to two, the Heat trailed by five points with less than a minute remaining. Ray Allen sent the game to overtime however with a clutch corner three in the final seconds. Miami went on to win the game and the series for back-to-back championships.
Many have raised the question; what if Allen didn’t hit the shot and the Spurs won their fifth ring? What happens to LeBron’s legacy and what happens the following year, when San Antonio ultimately got their revenge in the 2014 NBA Finals?
My what if comes during the final 30 seconds of the game. Spurs sixth man Manu Ginobili heads to the line with 28 seconds left, up by four. He hits one of two, putting them up by five, the miss seemingly not a big deal.
LeBron James answers with a three for Miami, who then sends Kawhi Leonard to the line with 19 seconds left, up by two. He also splits his pair, giving the Spurs just a three-point lead and room for Allen to even the scores with five seconds left.
What if just one of those missed free throws had fallen in? Miami is forced to put the Spurs to the line again and would have to hit another clutch shot to force the game into overtime.
It is very likely San Antonio wraps the series up in that game, win their sixth ring and LeBron heads back to Cleveland in 2014 with one ring and three finals losses from his tenure in South Beach. Spurs fans, I’m sorry.
For Easter Sunday I was treated to two all-time great AFL grand finals. First, Hawthorn’s 26-point victory over Geelong in 2008 and the 2009 battle between Geelong and St Kilda. The latter is the one of interest.
Both teams were top five in scoring during 2009 and were clearly the best two outfits. They entered round 14 undefeated and treated fans to arguably one of the greatest regular season games in the league’s history.
Under the roof at the then called Etihad Stadium the Saints prevailed by six points, but the potential match-up on the last day in September was where fans' minds went post game.
It became a reality and the stage was set. The two best teams on the biggest day. What were they presented with? One of the coldest and wettest days in grand final history.
Heavy rain in Melbourne the night before left the ground wet and several heavy showers throughout the game only added to the poor conditions. The highest temperature recorded was 11.3 degrees Celsius.
The end result was a 12-point win to the Cats and their second flag in three years. But what if it had been dry? St Kilda possessed two of the top five contested markers in the league in their forward line. Nick Riewoldt led the competition with 58 for the season and Justin Koschitzke sat fifth with 45.
Wet weather is never good for a grand final but especially not for the Saints. Riewoldt could only take two contested marks for the day and Koschitzke just one for one goal each.
Still, the Saints found themselves up by three points with nine minutes remaining in the final term. It took the famous toe poke from Matthew Scarlett and a Paul Chapman snap with just a couple of minutes to play to get Geelong over the line. But what if it was dry?
We got a taste for what the pair could do against the Cats in round 14. Under the roof on a dry surface Riewoldt took four contested marks for three goals, while Koschitzke took four marks inside 50 for two goals.
What if the Saints were blessed with the weather of the nine grand finals before that? Or the 10 since then? They were subject to the only wet grand final in recent memory while possessing arguably one of the most dangerous key forward combos of the modern era.
If the rain had held off for just another day, who knows, maybe St Kilda win their first premiership since 1966 and Geelong lose back to back grand finals.
In the end it’s all hypothetical and leaves some fans with a reality they can only dream about. Collingwood, San Antonio and St Kilda fans, my apologies if I’ve taken you down a path you’ve avoided. But for the neutral fan it’s fun to imagine these things and in the current climate, we’re kind of forced to to keep sport relevant in our lives.