The luck of sport
In the AFC Championship game last Monday, the 21st, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were down 24-28 to the Kansas City Chiefs with under two minutes to play in the fourth quarter.
On the ensuing drive, Brady was driving the Pats down the field when on a 3rd and 10, his high pass was intercepted with under a minute to play. Chiefs ball, up four, game over.
A defensive offside penalty, however, gives the ball back to New England and Brady takes the game to overtime.
Source: Chiefs Daily
With the obscure overtime rules in the NFL, the coin toss is vital to the outcome of the game. One touchdown ends the game without the opposition even touching the ball.
New England wins the toss, get the ball and Brady, like he has done countless times before, wins the game and takes the Patriots to their third straight Super Bowl.
I, like many others, consider the man the GOAT. However, these are some lucky outcomes during the biggest moments of the game. A brain-fade from the opposition and a coin toss to gain possession of the football.
Of course, once given a ‘second chance’ Brady doesn’t relinquish it and wins the game, but luck is an interesting aspect of sport.
In every championship season or dynasty, in any sport, luck always plays a part. Through such long seasons, with so many obstacles, a pinch of assistance can go a long way.
We don’t know if the Pats will end up going all the way in 2019, but just to give them a chance at a sixth championship since 2001, required some good fortune.
The same can be said for their 2015 Super Bowl victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
Down 28-24, the Seahawks fight their way to the one-yard-line while possessing the most dominant running-back of the time, Marshawn Lynch.
Instead of giving him the ball to win the game, they decide to pass, and it is intercepted, handing Brady and Belichick their fourth ring.
Source: 98.5 - The Sports Hub
No matter the result, he is still great because he put them in a position to win the football game. But sometimes the extra 2-3% needed to pull the team over the line is the thing no one can control; luck.
If we transition to the NBA, the story is the same. In the 2015 Finals, Golden State beats a Cleveland team that loses their second and third best players (Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love) during the playoffs.
In the 2017 Western Conference Finals, the Warriors are down 20 in game one to the San Antonio Spurs, until Kawhi Leonard injures his ankle. He misses the remainder of the series and the Warriors advance easily.
Source: Chat Sports
In the 2018 Western Conference Finals, Houston finds itself up 3-2, but Chris Paul injures his hamstring, missing the final two games. Golden State wins both and advances.
The Warriors are an all-time great dynasty, so there is little doubt that even without some of these injuries they still would have won championships.
But as all great players and teams have, they found some luck along the way.
If we look to the most recent dynasty in the AFL, Hawthorn, their dominance began with some good fortune.
Facing the 21-1 Cats in the 2008 Grand Final, they were the ultimate underdogs. Geelong had an average winning margin of 51-points up until the big dance, and the Hawks were full of youth.
Come game day, Geelong kicks 11.23 (11 rushed), including 4.15 in the second and third quarters combined.
Senior players Cam Mooney and Brad Ottens miss easy shots, and even though Geelong dominated the majority of the game, they found themselves down.
Credit to the Hawks, they took their chances and made Geelong pay, but how often do Geelong shoot themselves in the foot like that?
Fast forward 12 months and Geelong are on the other end, with St Kilda dominating play but missing easy goals.
Maybe it is good karma after 2008, but there is no doubt the Cats could have easily only won two premierships between 2007 and 2011 instead of three.
Source: AFL.com.au
Every championship team/dynasty is great in their own way and win in different fashions. There is no doubt they would have been successful no matter what, but luck is always involved.
Big or small, it will find a way to raise its head during crucial moments.