The key position formula

Since the 2011 draft, four key position players have been taken with the number one pick; Jonathon Patton, Tom Boyd, Paddy McCartin and Jacob Weitering. Excluding Tom Boyd’s heroics on grand final day in 2016, these players are seen to have question marks next to their name to this point in their careers. What do they all have in common? They were drafted from the TAC Cup and were seen as anchors for their sides for the next 10 years. The issue that arises from these situations is that these players are conditioned to playing against undersized and weaker defenders in an under-18 competition. The expectation placed on them is that they must immediately deliver results for their sides against mature and experienced bodies in the AFL. History has shown us this is often too tough an ask.

Source: Zimbio

Between the 2011 and 2017 drafts, there have been 12 key position players selected in the top 10 (excluding ruckman). Of those players, one is widely regarded a success, Joe Daniher. Two others, Aaron Francis and Aaron Naughton have been able to make an impact immediately. What do they both have in common? They come from the SANFL and the WAFL respectively, both with senior football experience before they were drafted. The following 9 are externally doubted and have struggled to impact games. They all hail from TAC Cup clubs.

Jonathon Patton, Tom Boyd, Paddy McCartin, Peter Wright, Darcy Moore, Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache, Sam Weiderman and Harry McKay dominated the under-18 competition and were obvious top 10 picks. But does underage competition correlate to the AFL? Recent history suggests not.

Source: Werribee Football Club

2018 Coleman Medalist Jack Riewoldt played two senior seasons in the SFL in Tasmania, as well as eight VFL games before he was drafted, and runner-up Ben Brown played a full senior TSL season in Tasmania and a full VFL-season before his North Melbourne career. Riewoldt was a shining light in a struggling Richmond side early, while Ben Brown became a valuable piece of the Kangaroos finals run in his first season. Even someone like Mitch McGovern, who played senior WAFL football before being drafted was able to come in and after a injury plagued 2015, played 23-games and kick 32 goals in 2016.

Source: West Coast Eagles

Similarly, the games top defenders are following the same path. Jeremy McGovern was a mature age recruit after playing 31 senior WAFL games. Even once drafted he still played reserves for West Coast for three seasons. Phil Davis was drafted and before playing a game he played 24 senior SANFL games, and hasn’t looked back. Alex Rance played a full season in the VFL Development League and was in and out of the AFL side for the next two years.

But what all of these key position players share is that by the time they played regular senior football, they were ready. They were physically and mentally hardened, and they were able to compete.

The inability for TAC Cup big man to impact at AFL level prompted Paul Roos to discuss the issue On the Couch, asking what the issue was with playing reserves footy for one to two years? With the information provided, it is hard to disagree with him.

Key position TAC Cup players need time and confidence. Throw them into the AFL immediately and their ego is severely dinted. Allow them to ply their trade in the reserves, and they enter the big time seasoned, confident and ready.

These players are drafted for a reason, so to ensure longevity, patience may be the key to be able to build toward a premiership.